Teixeira Trade Redux.

At first glance, I was disappointed by the return we got for Mark Teixeira, but that's because I was comparing it to what some hyped-up rumors were predicting and not to the ultimate "payoff" for hanging on to him until the bitter end. All in all, I think Frank Wren did well enough in this trade and I'll be looking forward to what he does this offseason to further evaluate him as Atlanta's General Manager.

Though the Braves were expected to wait until the deadline date to deal their best tradeable asset, they shipped 1B Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem (of California of the United States of North America) two days earlier than that in exchange for 1B Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stepthen Marek. Atlanta was hoping for a solid, controllable 1B to headline any package for Tex and "L.A." was apparently the only team willing to do just that.

While Kotchman's bat seems about average (perhaps slightly deficient for his position) it has shown flashes of more in the injury-shortened 2005 season and again last year in his first campaign as full-time starter. He has a history of taking his fair share of walks and rarely strikeouts, so while his power leaves much to be desired, he limits any negative impact that hitters can have at the plate. Moreover, as recently as 2004, he demonstrated solid power numbers in the high minors and could develope that once again in the majors. His most impressive attribute, however, is his defense and it is categorized as legitimately Gold Glove caliber. Keep in mind that he's only 25 years old and that he will be cheaply under the team's control for three more seasons.

Stephen Marek is a lesser known name in the minors, but he has some promise. Prior to 2008, he had started nearly every game he had appeared in as a professional with limited success. He had, however, demonstrated a negative trend in those first few years due to poor control and it was clear that he would be unable to make it as a starter at higher levels. This season, the Angels moved him into the bullpen where he has been better. Despite moving up to AA, he increased his strikeouts, lower the ammount of hits he's given up and limited his homeruns allowed. He's still struggling with his command and he'll need to dramatically lower the number of walks he issues if he hopes to make it to the majors. He has obvious raw talent and some work on his mechanics could help him tremendously. Whether the Braves chose to keep him as a reliever or return him to the rotation, he's a legitimate prospect.

It's foolish to compare this package to what Atlanta had to give up to acquire Teixera from Texas at this time last year for a number of reasons (we used up 2/3 of the time before Tex hit the open market, we also acquired RP Ron Mahay in that deal and drafted P Brett DeVall with the compensation pick that we received when he left via free agency, etc.) so those who cling to that as a reason to pan this deal are making a foolish mistake. Instead, ask yourselves whether Kotchman and Marek are better than two draft picks in the up-coming draft; if, like me, you believe that they are, then you can breathe easier about this trade. In fact, we should all take a step back and wait until GM Frank Wren has some more action under his belt before we judge his job performance for the Braves. In the end, this deal won't make or break us, so I'm O.K. with the outcome.

The Other Side of the Coin.

The Braves have had their overall record mired at around .500 all year, but do not be mislead. It is not time for thoughts of gloom and doom to enter into the fanbase, but rather for patience and hope to prevade it. We’ve suffered through an inordinate ammount of bad luck and a particularly difficult rash of injuries, both of which were out of anyone's control and only time can help either now. But believe me, we have the time and they will turn things around.

Remember, reinforcements are already on the way and others could be had using the farm system (via trade or promotion) as the season progresses. If you think this team is good now, just wait until you see them in the summer months! By the way, this is a very good ballclub that we have this year. And now, I hope you'll indulge me as I go off on an optimistic mini-rant of sorts, because I feel our boys deserve it tonight.

Thank God MLB has a long season, because it lets things like luck and health work themselves out. Yeah, the Braves are 6-15 on the road, but they’re also 14-4 at home. Sure, Atlanta is 1-11 in one-run games, but that just means that they're 19-8 in all others. Our guys are only one game over .500 after 39 games played, but that’s only 2.5 GB in the NL East right now and it’s still just mid-May. We did lose Smoltz, Soriano, Moylan and other valuable arms along the way (and some haven’t even come back yet), but we’ve been amazed by Jurrjens, rescued by Bennett, wowed by Boyer and we've discovered Campillo. Diaz might have failed as a full-time starter, but at least Blanco stepped up to help him in LF. Tex, Kelly and Francouer have all come out to slower than expected starts, but Chipper and McCann have been incredible AND Yunel and Kotsay have proven the doubters wrong.

That’s the thing about a .500 team: you have to remember that there are two sides to that coin. Moreover, not all .500 teams are created equal. It's early still and the Braves are clearly better than their record suggests. Keep the faith and your place in the bandwagon, because we'll be filling up in a hurry when our record begins to reflect our talent and performance thus far more accurately. I won't deny that this season has been almost too frustrating at times or that some of our difficulties are of our own making, but don't overlook the positives that are at least just as plentiful as the more publicized negatives.

We have the privilege of rooting for a great organization, one that has put together competitive teams for the better part of two decades now and this year won't be an exception. So sit back, relax and enjoy the ride Braves fans; we have a long road ahead of us and I still believe that we're ticketed for the postseason in 2008. Go Braves!

Series Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (05/13 - 05/15)

The road has not been kind to our Braves this season, but it's time for them to step up and improve on that account. We might not be as good as we've been in Atlanta and we're certainly not as bad as we've looked away from Turner Field, but which is ultimately closer to the truth will be determined by our performance against our divisional rivals such as the Phillies.

For this series in Philadelphia, we won't have either of our top two starters (Jurrjens and Hudson) out on the mound, but the pitching match-ups don't look all that bad either. Tonight we'll have Reyes going up against Kyle Kendrick. While I'm not sure what to expect out of Jo-Jo, Kendrick has been pretty bad all year, so we should be able to give our guy plenty of run support. Tomorrow night, Glavine faces Brett Myers on ESPN. Tommy has been a bit of a magician this season (making a ton of baserunners disappear before they can score) and Myers has really struggled with his return to the rotation, so I feel good about our chances there. Standing in the way of a potential sweep is Philly ace Cole Hamels, who gets the additional benefit of opposing Chuck James on Thursday night. I don't mean to be harsh, but I've kind of lost my faith in Chucky. Still, if we catch Hamels on an off night and James does his best Tom Glavine impersonation, our line-up should put us over the top.

Speaking of the line-ups, fans of hitting are in for a treat with this series. You'd be hard-pressed to find a weakspot in either line-up on any given night; in fact, if you put these two teams together, they'd give the remaining NL All-Stars are run for their money in the batting cages. Add to that the location of these games - Citizen's Bank Park is a pretty extreme hitter's park - plus the overall quality of the pitching (or lack thereof) and we could be in for quite a show.

I tipped my hand a bit earlier, but I'll go ahead and make my prediction known: the Braves will take the first two and drop the finale. I think we have the slight edge overall in both pitching and hitting, with the exception of Hamels' start to close the series out. As I've said before, what we need to do in May is keep our heads above water and stay within striking distance for the summer. If we can weather this early season storm of injuries and slow starts without falling too far behind, I like our chances to take the division and make a deep run in the postseason. Enjoy the games and, as always, go Braves!

The Pitchers Are Coming! The Pitchers Are Coming!

So far in 2008 the Braves have had to endure more than their fair share of injuries, particularly to the pitching staff. 4/5 of the optimal starting rotation has spent time on the disabled list and they've been joined by the team's three best relievers from last season. While John Smoltz's sore right shoulder will likely force him to miss another start - and may apparently require another stint on the DL - the stable of arms is likely to get a net boost shortly regardless. Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are all expected back sooner rather than later.

Glavine is actually slated to return to the mound tonight against the Washington Nationals after being placed on the DL for the first time in his career with a strained right hamstring. While he was never expected to anchor the rotation or go deep into games, he can still churn out quality starts at this point in his career. His return could help mitigate the damaged if Smoltz has to miss much time.

Hampton hasn't started a major league game in years, but he continues to battle back from numerous injuries with steadfast resolve. He's already put together a successful 50-pitch outing for the AAA Richmond Braves and could be back in Atlanta after just one more rehab start. At this point, any amount of production from him would be a bonus. I will always wish him all the best, I just don't expect anything from him.

Gonzalez has had his timetable for return moved up a couple times already and he should now return to the big league bullpen by mid-May. Since he's coming back from Tommy John surgery, it'll take him some time to return to form, but his contributions will be appreciated regardless. The 'pen has been exhausted in this early season and they could use a guy with his track record.

Soriano's mysterious elbow problem seems to be dissipating again, which is great news. He could make his return to Atlanta as soon as early May and it wouldn't be a moment to soon. In his absence, the youngsters Manny Acosta and Blaine Boyer have really stepped up. Having Soriano and Gonzalez back should provide for a formidable bullpen sooner rather than later.

UPDATE: John Smoltz has finally relented and will be going on the DL. His performance thus far has been nothing short of extraordinary and we should once again be extremely thankful for his efforts. I'm starting to believe this might be John's last season and that's a real shame, but I'll hold out hope until he utters those final words. I wish him a speedy recovery and hope Glavine, Hampton and/or whomever else is called upon to step into the rotation can hold down the fort for a while. All of our starters will need to step up and Smoltz will have to come back sooner rather than later if the Braves are to salvage this season.

Season To Date: Plenty of Hope.

Our rotation was expected to be solid and deep, but several injuries have cast doubt on that. Hudson and Smoltz have turned in every bit the ace-caliber performances that we have come to expect, but durability concerns hover over both of them due to John's troublesome right shoulder and Tim's mysterious decline in velocity. Nevertheless, both aces seem determined to work through their difficulties and anchor our rotation. Glavine - who was brought in for additional stability - recently landed on the DL for the first time in his illustrious career, but he should be back sooner rather than later. When healthy, Tom was a strong #3 starter, as expected. Hampton has yet to start an MLB game since 2005 and we'd be better of assuming he won't be able to contribute. Mike continues to battle through his myriad injuries and I wish him all the best. Jurrjens - acquired this off-season from the Detroit Tigers in the Edgar Renteria trade - earned a starting role in Atlanta with a strong spring and as performed admirably despite heightened pressure due to the multiple injuries throughout our pitching staff early in the season. Jair might not be able to sustain his current workload, but he's done everything we could have hoped for so far. Jeff Bennett has performed above and beyond the call of duty as he's been asked to spot start and routinely pitch out of the bullpen at the same time. Chuck James has flashed both the best and worst he has to offer, so we'll need him to settle down and perform consistently while we wait for our veterans to come off the DL. Considering the unexpected difficulties we've had to suffer so far, the rotation has managed quite well; we can also expect that they will only do better as we get healthier.

The bullpen has actually been hit harder by injuries than the rotation and, after writing the previous paragraph, that's a lot to say. The entire back end of the 'pen under optimal conditions (Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez and Peter Moylan) currently resides on the DL. Still, our other relievers have done what the can to hold down the fort. Youngsters Manny Acosta and Blaine Boyer, now called upon to close out games, have been rock solid since the calender turned to April. Lefty Will Ohman has been a steadying veteran influence and AAA reinforcements Buddy Carlyle and Jorge Campillo have been excellent in Atlanta. The aforementioned Jeff Bennett has been heroic and better than expected considering the circumstances of his use. The jury is out on LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) Royce Ring, other than to say that he is clearly best used as a specialist. All in all the bullpen has held its own despite an extremely high workload and depleted roster; moreover, they should get better as some of our relievers come off the DL.

The line-up, despite some unexpected voids in production, has been very strong overall. Chipper Jones continues to be among the best hitter alive, but he's not the only one anchoring the line-up. Rising stars Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar are performing at exceptional levels. Jeff Francouer and Mark Kostay have been fine at the plate, but their real value lies in the field where they continue to play extremely well. Unfortunately Teixeira, Johnson and Diaz have all struggled mightily. Mark is a notoriously slow starter and his MVP potential will keep him in the line-up everyday; he'll turn it around sooner rather than later. Kelly and Matt, however, have been used in platoons before and that should be a consideration moving forward. Ruben Gotay and Martin Prado have played well in limited time, as has Gregor Blanco in the outfield. The bench as a whole has performed extremely well, which is a welcome change from last season. This team has real depth here and those struggling are more likely to improve than those hitting well are likely to regress.

I still believe we'll see another pennant on the facade at Turner Field after this season is over and done with, so let's keep the faith Braves fans!

Series Review: Washington and Pittsburgh (3/30 - 4/3)

This was not the start to the season that Braves fans were hoping for or even expecting. The two losses in extra innings to the Pirates and a walk-off loss to the Nationals in the opener were heartbreaking, to say the least. Nevertheless, there are plenty of positive notes to take away from the otherwise slow start.

It looks as though Chipper Jones and Yunel Escobar picked up right where they left off last season; they are tearing the cover off the ball! Unlike last year, however, the bench has held its own in the early stages. Chief among them has been Martin Prado, who has filled in admirably for Kelly Johnson at 2B and in the leadoff slot. Of the regulars, only notorious slow-starter Mark Teixeira has produced at below acceptable levels. Watching them hit, however, I am concerned about Jeff Francouer's unrestrained approach at the plate. The line-up has to do a better job of converting base runners into runs, but they've looked good enough so far.

The pitching has been more of a mixed bag. Tim Hudson looked great in the opener and was only taken out in favor of a pinch hitter because of the close score late in the game. Both Tom Glavine and Jair Jurrjens turned in solid outings, but neither could make it out of the 6th inning. Mike Hampton was scratched before his start, forcing Jeff Bennett to take his place in a pinch and he pitched a tough four innings himself. Their performance has been good enough, but they need to extend their starts further or risk torching the bullpen early.

The relievers have had their ups and downs as well. Quite unexpectedly, the lefties have led the way. Royce Ring and Will Ohman, when used properly, have shown that they can be extremely effective. At the back-end of the bullpen, Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano have looked every bit as dominant as they did last year, with the exception of the game ending pitch to Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman. The three righties that fill out the 'pen after them - Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer and Chris Resop - have each had disastrous outings coupled with decent to good ones, so only time will tell which is the ultimate outcome from them. They each have good stuff, so we can remain optimistic about them.

The little things or often overlooked aspects of the game that are big in baseball, have not gone our way early this season. The defense has been sloppy at times and its cost us. We have good gloves and arms almost all the way around, so I expect that difficulty to fade as time goes on.

Atlanta has played all of 2.5% of their season thus far, so it's definitely to early to panic. Mark Teixeira won't be our worst hitter this year, we'll have more than one starter crack into the 7th inning and beyond, our young guys in the bullpen will settle into some semblance of consistency and the Braves will start winning more games. For now, we should just sit back, relax and enjoy the fact that baseball is finally back!

Projecting the 2008 Braves: Rotation Edition.

#1 - Smoltz - 33 GS, 220 IP, 16-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.5 K/9
#2 - Hudson - 33 GS, 210 IP, 15-9, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 5.5 K/9
#3 - Glavine - 33 GS, 205 IP, 14-9, 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.5 K/9
#4 - Hampton - 24 GS, 145 IP, 10-8, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.5 K/9
#5 - James - 24 GS, 145 IP, 12-8, 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 6.5 K/9

Once again, I'm feeling quite optimistic. This projection leaves only 15 starts unaccounted for, so I guess we'll let those be league average to round out the optimism. Hampton and James are question marks and it would probably be a good year if they combined for 24 starts and even then their production could very well be much worse than what I'm expecting. Glavine is another that may be declining more than I project, but I have faith that his return to Atlanta will have a positive effect. As for Smoltz and Huddy, I think they should be every bit as good as I published above.

This rotation is deep and strong throughout, coupled with the previously described offense, could well lead to a return to the top of the division. I'm assuming that most everything will break our way, but I'm tired of my own pessamism. We're due for a little good luck after two empty Octobers in a row. I feel so good about this team's upside that I'll be placing a small bet on them to reach the three possible championships: division title, league pennant and World Series winners. Go Braves!

Projecting the 2008 Braves: Line-up Edition.

C - Brian McCann: .300/.350/.490 with 20 HR, 89 RBI and 57 RS in 140 G
1B - Mark Teixeira: .295/.380/.550 with 35 HR, 120 RBI and 100 RS in 152 G
2B - Kelly Johnson: .270/..360/.450 with 15 HR, 70 RBI and 90 RS in 150 G
3B - Chipper Jones: .320/.415/.590 with 25 HR, 87 RBI and 88 RS in 117 G
SS - Yunel Escobar: .310/.375/.430 with 7 HR, 40 RBI and 90 RS in 130 G
LF - Matt Diaz: .330/.365/.485 with 10 HR, 40 RBI and 42 RS in 130 G*
CF - Mark Kotsay: .265/.320/.390 with 8 HR, 54 RBI and 51 RS in 108 G
RF - Jeff Francoeur: .280/.320/.460 with 25 HR, 103 RBI and 85 RS in 160 G
*Many of his "games played" will be pinch hit appearances.

As you can see, I'm quite optimistic about this Braves line-up and I think I have a right to be. Atlanta ranked near the top of the league in nearly every offensive category last season and there is no reason to believe they can't at least duplicate that effort. A significant thing to point out would be the fact that there are 209 games' worth of AB not accounted for here, as well as those of the pitcher's spot.

This underscores the importance of bench play, something that I believe could be improved from last year's edition if we pick the right guys from within the organization to fill out the active roster. Having guys like Pete Orr and Chris Woodward replaced with Martin Prado and Brent Lillibridge goes a long way. Brandon Jones as the primary outfield substitute and Gregor Blanco over Josh Anderson as the 5th OF would help as well. Hopefully Javy Lopez doesn't stick in Atlanta and either Clint Sammons or Brayan Pena get their shot at the bigs. Finally, Scott Thorman could be a wildcard, as we sorely lack power off the bench and he should be the anwer.

All in all, the Braves should be able to trot out a reliable line-up out there even on the worst of days. If everything goes well, this could once again be among the elite unit in the National League and, along with an improved pitching staff, should help restore the rightful order to the NL East.