Thursday, November 8

Counter-punch.

There is reason to believe that this Hot Stove season will be the best in recent years and the early action has lived up to the hype. A little over a week after the Braves made their opening move by dealing shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two top prospects, their division rival in Philadelphia acquired closer Brad Lidge in a package deal. The specifics were as follows:

Philadelphia gets CL Brad Lidge and UI Eric Bruntlett
Houston gets OF Michael Bourn, RP Geoff Geary and 3B Mike Costanzo

I truly believe that trades can have three results: win-lose, win-win and lose-lose. Personally, I'm not sold that either side is getting exactly what they may be expecting.

Lidge has been a dominant reliever throughout his career, but he's become HR prone, and Citizen's Bank ballpark will not be kind to that sort of problem. Moreover, the East is not only a tougher division for pitchers to navigate than the Central, it is by far the NL's best as far as hitting is concerned. His acquisition will allow converted starter Bret Myers to return to the Phillies rotation without weakening the bullpen, but he had trouble staying healthy in that role in the first place. Bruntlett, the obvious throw-in, is a weak hitting player who is versatile (if unspectacular) defensively.

Nevertheless, the Astros did not get away with highway robbery today. Bourn, beloved by scouts, does not have the stats to back it up. With a career SLG under .400, his OBP and base-stealing abilities provide his full value on offense. He's been undoubtedly effective on the base paths, but his OBP hasn't been all that impressive since he was promoted to AA in 2005. That said, he's only 25 and is apparently a plus defender, with a plus arm as well. Geary has been average at best in the majors, he's on the wrong side of 30 and his very good 2006 looks like a fluke. Finally, Mike Costanzo was a little known prospect in the Phillies farm system. He was pushed to 3B due to Ryan Howard's success in Philadelphia, but he's likely a 1B in the future. He's been fine with the stick, but he hasn't been amazing and there are holes in his swing. He's also old for his level.

All in all, the deal seems fair and certainly not as monumental as it might seem at first glance. As a Braves fan, my initial reaction was concern, but now I'm not so sure. I could see this working well for either franchise, but I feel compelled to believe that they will both be underwhelmed by this trade in the end.