Counter-punch.

There is reason to believe that this Hot Stove season will be the best in recent years and the early action has lived up to the hype. A little over a week after the Braves made their opening move by dealing shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two top prospects, their division rival in Philadelphia acquired closer Brad Lidge in a package deal. The specifics were as follows:

Philadelphia gets CL Brad Lidge and UI Eric Bruntlett
Houston gets OF Michael Bourn, RP Geoff Geary and 3B Mike Costanzo

I truly believe that trades can have three results: win-lose, win-win and lose-lose. Personally, I'm not sold that either side is getting exactly what they may be expecting.

Lidge has been a dominant reliever throughout his career, but he's become HR prone, and Citizen's Bank ballpark will not be kind to that sort of problem. Moreover, the East is not only a tougher division for pitchers to navigate than the Central, it is by far the NL's best as far as hitting is concerned. His acquisition will allow converted starter Bret Myers to return to the Phillies rotation without weakening the bullpen, but he had trouble staying healthy in that role in the first place. Bruntlett, the obvious throw-in, is a weak hitting player who is versatile (if unspectacular) defensively.

Nevertheless, the Astros did not get away with highway robbery today. Bourn, beloved by scouts, does not have the stats to back it up. With a career SLG under .400, his OBP and base-stealing abilities provide his full value on offense. He's been undoubtedly effective on the base paths, but his OBP hasn't been all that impressive since he was promoted to AA in 2005. That said, he's only 25 and is apparently a plus defender, with a plus arm as well. Geary has been average at best in the majors, he's on the wrong side of 30 and his very good 2006 looks like a fluke. Finally, Mike Costanzo was a little known prospect in the Phillies farm system. He was pushed to 3B due to Ryan Howard's success in Philadelphia, but he's likely a 1B in the future. He's been fine with the stick, but he hasn't been amazing and there are holes in his swing. He's also old for his level.

All in all, the deal seems fair and certainly not as monumental as it might seem at first glance. As a Braves fan, my initial reaction was concern, but now I'm not so sure. I could see this working well for either franchise, but I feel compelled to believe that they will both be underwhelmed by this trade in the end.

And So It Begins.

Earlier today the Atlanta Braves announced that they traded shortstop Edgar Renteria, an All-Star caliber player who had to be under consideration for the team's unofficial MVP award for last season, to the Detroit Tigers. In return, the Braves acquired SP Jair Jerrjens and CF Gorkys Hernandez.

Of the two, only Jerrjens figures to be in the mix to make the big league club in 2008. He's thought of as being a middle-of-the-rotation type starter with good stuff and very good control. He pitched only a handful of times in Detroit last season, with decent results. He earned his promotion there with a brief run of incredible starts with their AA affiliate. His overall track record in the minors is very solid, if not spectacular. At only 21 years of age, he still has a ways to go before he reaches his potential. While he could benefit from more experience before making his debut in Atlanta, I would not be surprised to see him in the big league rotation from day 1.

Gorkys Hernandez is referred to as a potential five tool player, but so far he's only demonstrated the three physical ones (defense, arm and speed) and will need to work on his hitting if he is to make as big of an impact as is expected of him. 2007 was his first full season in professional baseball and the 19 year old acquitted himself quite nicely in Low-A ball. He's shown very little power as of yet and his OBP needs to be higher to offset that, but there's no reason to believe that he won't blossom into a fine outfielder. The emergence of Jordan Schafer seems to block him in CF and the competition for LF (Jeff Francouer will be a staple in RF in Atlanta for years to come) figures to be stiff as Cody Johnson had a breakout season and the franchise took Jason Heyward in the first round of the draft this year.

All in all, I think it's a fair trade for both teams. It obviously has a greater impact on the Tigers in 2008, but the Braves will reap the benefits soon thereafter. I was surprised by the type of package Atlanta accepted in return of Renteria and the quickness with which they dealt him, but I'm not disappointed with the result. Moreover, this is not the end of the line for the Braves this offseason or, potentially, for the prospects they just acquired. This is just the beginning of the Hot Stove season, but what a beginning it has been!

Not Dead Yet.

The Braves had fallen so far behind the pace in the race for MLB's playoffs that they were basically left for dead, but now they're refusing to go quietly into that good night. Atlanta has strung together five wins and are currently trying for a sixth against the struggling Milwuakee Brewers. The announcers repeatedly stated that the Braves are out of it until the 7th, when they finally acknowledged the mathematical possibility of their making the playoffs.

To be fair, I should give credit where credit is due: this comeback of sorts would not have been possible if it weren't for the Mets spectacular swoon from their comfortable perch atop the N.L. East. Ironically, the Braves are now closer to their division crown than they are the Wild Card. The remainder of the schedule isn't too hard for Atlanta, but they'll need help if they're to attach a storybook ending to this trying season.

I guess the morale of this story is, in the immortal words of baseball's all-time quote machine Yogi Berra, "it ain't over till it's over". I had been optimistic to the point of flying in the face of reason this year, but even I have to admit that I tuned out after the Braves failed to capitalize during their head-to-head meetings with the teams ahead of them in the East. I've been preaching the gospel of the 2008 Atlanta Braves ever since, but now I find myself putting that down and ripping up the premature obituary that I had printed for this year's edition... and so should you.

The Bench Is Costing Us Wins!

Everyone knows that the Braves go only four deep in the rotation and that, before the acquisition of Mark Teixeira, they had a black hole (at least as far as offensive production is concerned) at 1B, but the weakness of the bench is often overlooked. That said, it is no small drain on the team.

Failed starters and full-time bench-warmers alike, Atlanta has been seriously hurt by those hitters that have not carried their own wait in the line-up. While some might temper that with solid defense, must simply weigh the team down. Players that are no longer with the organization such as Ryan Langerhans and Craig Wilson, as well as some who have been sent down to the minors (Pete Orr, Brayan Pena and Julio Franco among those) cost the Braves 20 runs, i.e. 2 wins, before they were cast aside. Others that are still with the team, such as Scott Thorman, Chris Woodward and Martin Prado, carry a negative value of 14.4 runs due to their bat. All of these scores are from Baseball Prospectus in terms of VORP. That means that the weak hitting bench is responsible for the difference between Atlanta and first place in the NL East.

Moving forward, it's hard to see any minor leaguers having an immediate impact at the major league level, but perhaps simply using the bench less would be a reasonable alternative. Instead of essentially platooning Johnson and Escobar at 2B, why not use Yunel to give the other infielders regular rest? With him and whichever LF they're not using that day (either Matt Diaz or Willie Harris) the bench seems to be solid enough at the top so as not to dip to deep into it. I see the problem, but don't really see an obvious solution. I feel as though the expansion of the roster might allow for outstanding prospects such as Brent Lillibridge and especially Brandon Jones to correct this problem down the stretch and possibly into the playoffs. Something needs to be done about this, I'm just not sure what exactly.

Five Starters Or Four?

Is it possible that we have not even considered the most viable solution to the Braves most significant deficiency in 2007? My proposal, while radical and seemingly backward, deserves some serious consideration and is grounded in cool, hard fact.

Before I go on to the specifics, I should let you all know that I'm currently plowing through Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong by "the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts" and it's been an enthralling, eye-opening experience. Now, while I will soon write up a review of the book as a whole, I am compelled to share some tidbits of knowledge from the chapter within that book whose title I've borrowed for this post.

There is no discernible detriment to employing a four-man rotation as opposed to the more commonly used five-man variety. Three days provides sufficient rest and pitch counts, not number of starts, is the most significant factor when considering injuries and fatigue. Needless to say, the benefits of this recently forgotten strategy are obvious: your best pitchers get more starts, an additional roster spot is opened up, etc. Is this, however, a plausible alternative for the Braves now and what would the likely outcome of such a move be?

If you take Smoltz, Hudson, James and Carlyle as Atlanta's top four starters, that leaves Davies, Redman, Reyes, Lerew and Cormier as the "5th starter" for the team thus far this year. Not surprisingly, that slot has been the proverbial revolving door and it has cost the Braves in the win column. While I am relatively new to the world of new baseball statistics, I feel as though I understand VORP (Value Over Replacement Level) well enough and it appears to be an extremely useful, relatively easy to find, stat. Using it as our guide, we can determine that Atlanta has lost 42 runs, or approximately four games in the standings, due to the 32 starts that they afforded those pitchers. Every other Braves starter has contributed at least one win in their own right. That is, coincidentally, according to those experts at Baseball Prospectus. Interestingly enough, those stats also expose the largely hidden impact of another significant team flaw that I will explore in another post.

Anyway, this means that the Braves record would be four games better had they simply had the average AAA/FA pitcher starting for them every fifth game AND they would have been even better than that had they dared to employ a four-man rotation with their most consistent performers. It would have been nice to have acquired another stable starter to add to the mix before the deadline, but that time has come and gone; it is now time to take a different approach. Virgil is recognized as having stated that "fortune favors the bold" and I feel as though this change is the sort of step that would in fact be as beneficial as it is brave.

Many have indicated that the Tex trade made MLB a "Brave New World", this could be the final move towards making that rhetoric a reality. This is the ultimate measure of improvement from within; costing us nothing and perhaps giving us everything in return. Personally, I'd be relieved to know that our fifth starter would be none other than one of the preceding four instead of yet another re-tread, busted prospect or rushed youngster. If they keep the pitch counts low (use of the extra roster spot on a reliever will help endure that) there's no reason to fear the change. It's time to put these statistical theorems to the test, especially since they can be the difference between being an also-ran and champion of the baseball world!

Atlanta Gets Better, But At What Cost?

It has been stated, mostly by critics pre-disposed to rooting against Braves, that Atlanta's actions prior to the Trade Deadline were born of desperation and will eventually come back to haunt them. The same voices that argued that Braves fans overvalued their own prospects to a ridiculous degree soon warned against the loss of those very same players once they were members of different organizations. Many simply considered the speculated talent of the group dealt away without considering their specific worth to Atlanta or even the true depth of the returns, but I would now like to take the final steps towards correcting that misconception as we look at what was given up for this likely final, two-year playoff run with our current headlining stable of veterans.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was the centerpiece of the package shipped to Texas as part of this Deadline's biggest trade and it's easy to see why. The 21-year-old is a switch-hitter with plus power and solid contact. He also happens to play at a position of depleted talent around the majors: catcher. In fact, I suspect that he should be among the 5 best in MLB at that spot before the end of the decade. The principle reason for caution among critics is his deficient 2006 campaign at the Braves AA affiliate in Mississippi, something that has been credited to a lingering injury and clearly reversed earlier this year once he was proven healthy. Others will point to his unspectacular .822 OPS in the minors as proof that he is mostly hype, but that includes two weak seasons as a 17 and 18 year-old, as well as the aforementioned injury-plagued 2006. All in all, I think it's fair to say that the Rangers acquired a budding superstar in the player affectionately referred to as Salty. That said, Atlanta has their own youthful All-Star at the position.

Elvis Andrus was perhaps the second most notable name sent to Texas in this deal, though his projectability is the most debatable. The 19-year-old prospect has been called a phenom by some, but is yet to prove much of anything as a pro. He's been younger than most at every level so far in his ascent through the organization, but he hasn't replicated even his moderate success in the Rookie League two years ago. His most notable attributes are his speed and defense, though he's expected to develop plus contact and some power. Factoring into Atlanta's decision to trade Elvis is the fact that SS is their deepest position as an organization and he was the one farthest from contributing to the big league club. Moreover, he might simply not have been progressing as well/quickly as the Braves had hoped and they figured his value in a trade now was higher than as a player were he to remain with the franchise.

Matt Harrisonbegan the season as the Braves undisputed top pitching prospect, but he was matched by Jo-Jo Reyes and surpassed by Dan Smith in Mississippi this season. By the time of the trade, Harrison was still in AA while Smith had moved up to AAA and Reyes was pitching in Atlanta. Sure, Dan and Jo-Jo have struggled at the higher levels, but Matt didn't even get called up. Injury concerns further damage the outlook for a starter that was not dominate outside of A-ball. The Braves have plenty of lefty starters at his same level and, when it's all said and done, I doubt his absence will be felt as much of a loss in Atlanta.

The two other pitchers that the Rangers acquired (Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones) were less well-known, but perhaps better than the others in this package not nicknamed Salty. Though they are still years away from making an impact at the major-league level, they've each shown glimpses of excellence and Neftali managed to sustain that this year. Power pitchers alike, I personally think that Feliz will be a smashing success while Jones might not make it. If the Braves had not accumulated so much similar depth in arms, these two losses might have hurt the most.

Finally, GM John Schuerholz made a deal with Kevin Towers of the Padres in which he gave up a troubled lefty starter allegedly masquerading as a reliever (Wilfredo Ledezma) and a popular southpaw RP prospect (Will Startup) for added bullpen depth. I will never understand the trade that brought Ledezma to Atlanta in the first place, but I'm glad he's gone and that the Braves received something potentially useful in return. That return, however, was due to the other name in the deal that, while fictitious-sounding, belongs to a real-deal prospect. While not being exactly what the Braves needed in Atlanta now, Startup is likely to be a solid pro. Some believe that he doesn't have the stuff to make it, but I like to think that he has what it takes to work around that deficiency. Nevertheless, Atlanta is not likely to miss him due to the depth of relief arms mentioned above.

All in all, the Braves surrendered a staggering amount of prospects in return for a handful of veterans in moves that are geared towards winning now. Regardless of that fact, Atlanta's future is not in jeopardy because of these trades. We have glanced at the benefit of the additions and the cost of acquiring them, in the final installment of this Trade Deadline series I will breakdown the team's outlook in both the short and long terms. I hope you decide to come back for that as I look forward to writing it!

Cavalry To The [Bullpen's] Rescue.

We all watched with dismay as the once seemingly unbeatable 2007 edition of the Braves bullpen started to give up hits, then runs and finally leads as the calendar pages turned, but before the Trade Deadline's expired, Atlanta's legendary General Manager had reinforced that unit yet again and beyond what anyone had expected. Not only did he trade for one of the most coveted arms available, but he addressed the bullpen's greatest area of concern by acquiring not one, but two left-handed relievers. While these moves undoubtedly make the Braves a better team this season and were not as costly as their headlining deal, it's best to curb our enthusiasm a bit when discussing these three pitchers.

The Kansas City Royals, a team that was not expected to (and has in fact failed to) contend this year, took a chance by signing struggling 33-year-old relief pitcher Octavio Dotel to a one-year, $5M-$7.5M contract with a player option for 2008 worth $5.5M-$8M, thinking that they could in fact deal him before the deadline in exchange for a much needed prospect or two and that is exactly what happened. Octavio re-established his value by proving his relative health and worth, becoming one of the most attractive names on the market and, while he's sure to help Atlanta by providing some much needed depth and power to their relief corps, he's not the difference- maker that some have made him out to believe. That said, he's certainly not the lemon that others have made him out to be.

Dotel has had many phases in his career, some good/great, others bad/ugly. He was originally miscast as a starter and struggled through his rookie season in 1999 with the Mets and a good chuck of his second season, then with the Astros. He then became a dominant reliever in Houston (2001-2003) before his performance began to dip and he was eventually traded to Oakland in 2004. His 2005 was adequate as far as performance goes, but shortened by injury and 2006 (then with the Yankees) was an unmitigated disaster. This season with the Royals has seen him return to the results he displayed with the A's, but his peripherals are considerably worse. He was the closer in Kansas City, but he will be used as a set-up man in Atlanta and, if everyone else straigthens out, he should be relegated to middle relief.

Though their names are not as recognizable, the other two additions to the Braves bullpen are certainly the most significant. Ron Mahay was billed as the "side of fries" in the Mark Teixeira deal, but he's more than just a throw-in. The 36-year-old RP is currently working his tenth season in the major leagues, but he hasn't been consistently good in his career. He's not to be confused with a LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy i.e. lefty specialist) as he's been used for over an inning per appearance and about equally against lefties and righties with similar success coming against both those groups. He's not a power/strikeout pitcher and his control isn't exceptional, but he gets results. It's easy to see how he gets himself into trouble, but he's a useful guy to have around that's had a good year thus far. Ron is on the last year of his current deal and I honestly wouldn't expect to see him back in Atlanta next season.

Finally, Royce Ring is a guy that most Braves fans may have forgotten even though he used to play for the rival Mets. Here's a guy that once was highly regarded, but was apparently never given a fair shake at the major league level. It's true that he's struggled with his control at times, but he gets plenty of strikeouts and is brutal on lefties. He's been incredibly effective in the minor leagues, including considerable time there this year, so he should get a chance to prove his worth in Atlanta. He's 26 and far from free agency, so I see this potential LOOGY or set-up man sticking with the Braves for a long time to come. In fact, I'll venture to guess that he should be a mainstay in Atlanta, if he's given the chance.

Well, there you have it: an extended, in depth look at the acquisitions by the Braves this Trade Deadline. Personally, I think that they got the best that they could have gotten and that it will be enough to catapult them into legitimate World Series contention, though I will discuss the remaining rumors that did not pan out in another post soon. By the way, the newcomers had practically perfect debuts; Teixeira had a big first night at the plate as the Braves blew out yet another opponent, while Dotel and Mahay saw their first action in Atlanta this evening and pitched a pair of scoreless innings. Perhaps only Braves fans can understand just how comforting/exciting all that is, but I'm sure that others can sympathize.

Hello, My Name Is: Mark Teixeira.

No team did as much as the Atlanta Braves to improve their chances to win this year and the next at the 2007 Trade Deadline. Even the most casual of observers could note the Braves glaring needs as follows: a quality starter, a consistently effective southpaw reliever, additional bullpen depth and a capable first baseman. In a single day, Braves fans saw 75% of those concerns addressed about as soundly as possible considering the market and can rest assured that the 4th was not neglected, but rather unavailable for improvement. Let's start our review of the welcome additions by taking a closer look at the biggest name dealt this season, 1B Mark Teixeira.

Tex (a nickname that is now under review since he no longer plays for a Texas franchise) is widely considered one of the best young players in baseball today. As a 21-year-old college graduate, he was drafted 5th overall by the Texas Rangers and had a short, extremely successful stint in the minor leagues before getting called up to The Show. He broke into the majors in 2003 and broke out shortly there after. He's one of only three switch-hitters to hit at least 20 HR in each of his first three seasons (he joins one of the other two, his baseball idol, in Atlanta) and the fifth major leaguer, period, to accumulate 100 HR over that same span. He also holds the MLB record for RBI by a switch-hitter. Those accomplishments, however, might lead you to believe that he's a one-dimensional power hitter, which he's not

In his young major league career, Mark has been award two Gold Gloves for his stellar defense at 1B and has maintained a balanced line of .283/.368/.533. Chipper Jones has indicated that having a switch-hitter that is dangerous from both sides of the plate behind him in the batting order will help him immensely and it's hard to argue with that. While Teixeira is seemingly more comfortable in Chipper's traditional #3 spot in the line-up, he'll have plenty of protection as the Braves clean-up hitter and should be extremely successful in Atlanta. He's a renown second-half hitter (his OPS over the last three years is 90 points higher after the All-Star break) so there's more than just hope to the belief that he'll really do well as a Brave and could push Atlanta over the top this year. He also happens to be a very durable guy who, before his short stint on the DL this season, had played in over 500 consecutive games. How long he remains a Brave is the matter of much debate and Atlanta's front office has been derided due to the belief that it won't be for long.

Mark will get $9M total as he completes his current contract this year and is expect to receive another $14M or so in arbitration for next season before he can become a free agent. He is a Scott Boras client and, as such, is expected to test the market at that time; but there is some hope still

Teixeira was born in Maryland and has expressed a desire to return to his home state as a free agent following the 2008 season, so it's not as though money appears to be his only motivation. As such, the Braves are hoping that his college connection to Atlanta (he attended Georgia Tech) might be enough to counteract that attraction and that the obvious difference in the direction of the franchises in question will be enough to put them over the top. It was recently made public that Tex turned down a $140M contract offer from the Rangers, but it's hard to read much into that considering his desire to get out of that franchise. Many believe that this serves only to highlight the fact that Atlanta simply won't have the cash to keep him in a Braves uniform for 2009 and beyond as they're pitted against teams with deeper pockets such as the Yankees, RedSox and Mets in a bidding war for his continued services, but they fail to consider the probability that the Braves will no longer have as many significant financial commitments left on the books and are ignoring Liberty Media's (the new owners of the franchise) apparent willingness to expand the payroll budget as necessary to compete. Regardless, Atlanta has options that will be discussed at length in the upcoming post about the team's revised outlook.

All in all, Teixeira turns a spot on the diamond and in the line-up that was the worst in baseball into a clear strength for the Braves. Many of us have speculated that an acquisition of this sort would be a shot in the arm for the whole team and, as evidenced by the standing ovation that he received after being spotted in the dugout for the first time during a game, the fan base is energized by this move as well. Atlanta now boasts the best line-up, top to bottom, in the National League. As many have astutely noted and I affirm, if you can't improve your rotation by adding a starter, you can help the ones you already have by boosting your line-up and bullpen. The Braves have done just that and, later today, I'll review the relievers we added to our team to complete the makeover. There's a real chance that World Series games will be played in the city of Atlanta once again and, I'm not going to lie, it's about time!

MLB Trade Deadline: A Braves Fan's Perspective.

Hello again, and welcome to my latest attempt at establishing a sports' blog at this address. In the past, I have covered the major sports leagues that I follow (MLB, NFL, NCAA football and basketball) with a special focus on the teams that I like (the Atlanta Braves, Denver Broncos and Florida Gators), but I have always done so with a measure of objectivity and what I consider to be an intersting perspective. My hope is that this site will become a source of information brought to you through a unique prism and the home of much spirited, and yet courteous, debate. And now, without further ado, on to the topic referenced in the headline.

It's been an exhausting couple of days to be a Braves fan, but in a good way. Atlanta's management, in an uncharacteristic set of aggressive moves, was able to acquire the best position player on the market, one of the most coveted relievers and two solid lefties for the bullpen. With the notable/disturbing exception of a serviceable, middle-of-the-rotation-type starter, the Braves addressed all of their major areas of concern and did so in style. These types of deals, however, come at a steep price and July 31st, 2007 was no exception.

Atlanta has long benefited from the depth of its' farm system and it was, in fact, heavily taxed in order to complete the necessary trades to compete this year and in the next. Critics will say that the Braves mortgaged their future for a chance to win a championship now, but that serves only to illustrate a common misconception that is rooted in a foolish generalization. While it is certainly disconcerting for a franchise like the San Francisco Giants to lack adequate position playing prospects because of the advanced age and declining production of their major league roster, Atlanta currently boasts a bevy of cheap, youthful talent that should sustain the team with little support from its minor league affiliates for some time to come. Starting pitching is of the greatest concern, but it's not so bleak as some might have you believe and it was not jeopardized quite as seriously as others state.

There are those who have intimated that Atlanta will look back on this day after the 2008 season concludes, empty-handed as their recent acquisitions depart via free agency and facing an extended period of mediocrity after a failed playoff run or two, only to regret their short-sighted and incomplete actions of this Tuesday, but I am not one of those people. I, for one, am thrilled by the Braves front office's intentions and results; it wasn't perfect or even as expected, but hope is priceless and we fans have it in abundance now.

In the following series, I will breakdown the Trade Deadline from Atlanta's perspective as follows: Day 1 - The Additions, Day 2 - The Cost, Day 3 - The Rumors and Day 4 - The Outlook. Anyway, I hope that you all enjoyed this brief primer and follow along as I complete this feature and beyond. Be sure to chime in with the a comment if you can. Oh, and one last thing: go Braves!